7.3 Numerical Weather Prediction

NWP models solve the primitive equations on a 3D grid to forecast weather. Modern models have ~10 km resolution globally.

Primitive Equations

Momentum: $\frac{D\vec{v}}{Dt} = -\frac{1}{\rho}\nabla p - f\hat{k}\times\vec{v} + \vec{g} + \vec{F}$

Continuity: $\frac{\partial \rho}{\partial t} + \nabla\cdot(\rho\vec{v}) = 0$

Thermodynamic: $\frac{D\theta}{Dt} = \frac{\dot{Q}}{c_p\Pi}$

Moisture: $\frac{Dq}{Dt} = S_q$

Major NWP Models

GFS

NOAA global model, ~13 km

ECMWF IFS

European, ~9 km, gold standard

NAM/HRRR

Regional US, 3 km

ICON

German DWD, icosahedral grid